🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Colby Covington
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
23-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-5
W8
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Edwards: 57 sig / 2 TD ·
Covington: 44 sig / 2 TD
Leon Edwards
Colby Covington
73
Sig strikes landed
59
153
Sig strikes attempted
181
107
Total strikes landed
99
1.1
Takedowns landed
3.3
3.8
Takedowns attempted
9.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
128s
Control time
275s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 13-2
Last 5
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—