Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alex Morono
Joaquin Buckley
44%
56%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
25-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
22-8
W1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morono: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Buckley: 68 sig / 2 TD
Alex Morono
Joaquin Buckley
61
Sig strikes landed
57
139
Sig strikes attempted
137
69
Total strikes landed
68
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
39s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 12-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W1
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—