Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aoriqileng
Johnny Munoz
68%
32%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 0y
31
26-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aoriqileng: 44 sig / 2 TD ·
Munoz: 7 sig / 4 TD
Aoriqileng
Johnny Munoz
50
Sig strikes landed
38
96
Sig strikes attempted
107
74
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
89s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Johnny Munoz
"Kid Kvenbo"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—