Back to UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Montana De La Rosa vs JJ Aldrich

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Montana De La Rosa
JJ Aldrich
52% 48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
13-10-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-7
L2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
De La Rosa: 67 sig / 0 TD · Aldrich: 65 sig / 0 TD
Montana De La Rosa
JJ Aldrich
40
Sig strikes landed
53
96
Sig strikes attempted
98
76
Total strikes landed
70
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
236s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Montana De La Rosa

13-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
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L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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D UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
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Blue corner
W1

JJ Aldrich

16-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
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L UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
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L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
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W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
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