Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Diana Belbita
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Diana Belbita
41%
59%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
38
Age
Δ 11y
27
17-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-10
W3
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 141 sig / 1 TD ·
Belbita: 99 sig / 2 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Diana Belbita
87
Sig strikes landed
77
174
Sig strikes attempted
192
110
Total strikes landed
91
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Diana Belbita
"The Warrior Princess"
16-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—