Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Bill Algeo
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
19-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Algeo: 110 sig / 1 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Bill Algeo
55
Sig strikes landed
57
119
Sig strikes attempted
117
65
Total strikes landed
76
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—