Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Maness
Mateus Mendonca
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 8y
25
16-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Maness: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendonca: 3 sig / 0 TD
Nate Maness
Mateus Mendonca
35
Sig strikes landed
23
73
Sig strikes attempted
57
56
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
97s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
16-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mateus Mendonca
"Bocao"
10-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—