Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Connor Matthews
Jair Farias
39%
61%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 80 sig / 7 TD ·
Farias: 57 sig / 0 TD
Connor Matthews
Jair Farias
41
Sig strikes landed
67
104
Sig strikes attempted
139
49
Total strikes landed
77
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
66s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Connor Matthews
"The Controller"
7-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 6.2
—
Blue corner
Jair Farias
"Chosen"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31