Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Yuri Panferov
Torrez Finney
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Panferov: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Finney: 7 sig / 7 TD
Yuri Panferov
Torrez Finney
35
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
72
52
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yuri Panferov
"The Russian Polar Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Torrez Finney
"The Punisher"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25