Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
MarQuel Mederos
Issa Isakov
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mederos: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Isakov: 8 sig / 0 TD
MarQuel Mederos
Issa Isakov
38
Sig strikes landed
34
79
Sig strikes attempted
69
56
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
MarQuel Mederos
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Issa Isakov
"Determinator"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34