Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Davi Bittencourt
Lucas Rocha
35%
65%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bittencourt: 22 sig / 5 TD ·
Rocha: 8 sig / 0 TD
Davi Bittencourt
Lucas Rocha
34
Sig strikes landed
40
74
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
115s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Davi Bittencourt
"The Black"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Lucas Rocha
"Fenomeno"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23