Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Carli Judice
Ernesta Kareckaite
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
25
Age
Δ 1y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Judice: 168 sig / 0 TD ·
Kareckaite: 184 sig / 1 TD
Carli Judice
Ernesta Kareckaite
36
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
66
Total strikes landed
67
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Carli Judice
"Crispy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Ernesta Kareckaite
"Heavy-Handed"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25