Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vinicius Oliveira
Victor Madrigal
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oliveira: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Madrigal: 7 sig / 0 TD
Vinicius Oliveira
Victor Madrigal
41
Sig strikes landed
31
83
Sig strikes attempted
69
60
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vinicius Oliveira
"LokDog"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner
Victor Madrigal
"Periquito"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33