Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexander Soldatkin
Mario Piazzon
56%
44%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 5y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 3
Soldatkin: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Piazzon: 14 sig / 13 TD
Alexander Soldatkin
Mario Piazzon
35
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
61
54
Total strikes landed
72
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alexander Soldatkin
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Mario Piazzon
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26