Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danny Barlow
Raheam Forest
67%
33%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barlow: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Forest: 7 sig / 0 TD
Danny Barlow
Raheam Forest
37
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
67
53
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Danny Barlow
"LeftHand2God"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Raheam Forest
"Rambo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
26