Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephanie Luciano
Talita Alencar
69%
31%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
58"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Luciano: 87 sig / 1 TD ·
Alencar: 35 sig / 4 TD
Stephanie Luciano
Talita Alencar
39
Sig strikes landed
34
97
Sig strikes attempted
70
64
Total strikes landed
69
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Stephanie Luciano
"Rondinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33