Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dylan Mantello
Kaynan Kruschewsky
41%
59%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mantello: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Kruschewsky: 27 sig / 1 TD
Dylan Mantello
Kaynan Kruschewsky
34
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
75
41
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dylan Mantello
"The Quiet Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Kaynan Kruschewsky
"Bahia"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33