Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julia Polastri
Patricia Alujas
65%
35%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Polastri: 84 sig / 1 TD ·
Alujas: 53 sig / 0 TD
Julia Polastri
Patricia Alujas
49
Sig strikes landed
52
96
Sig strikes attempted
124
60
Total strikes landed
80
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
14-7
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 5.3
—
Blue corner
Patricia Alujas
"The Angel"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27