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Main Bantamweight

Jean Matsumoto vs Kasey Tanner

DWCS 7.6 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jean Matsumoto
Kasey Tanner
86% 14%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matsumoto: 100 sig / 0 TD · Tanner: 99 sig / 2 TD
Jean Matsumoto
Kasey Tanner
42
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
68
60
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jean Matsumoto

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

Kasey Tanner

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32