Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jhonata Diniz
Eduardo Neves
50%
50%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Diniz: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Neves: 24 sig / 0 TD
Jhonata Diniz
Eduardo Neves
30
Sig strikes landed
26
43
Sig strikes attempted
53
55
Total strikes landed
37
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jhonata Diniz
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
L1
Eduardo Neves
"Bebezao"
7-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 6.5
—