Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Llontop
Malik Lewis
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
24
Age
Δ 3y
28
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Llontop: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Lewis: 29 sig / 2 TD
James Llontop
Malik Lewis
50
Sig strikes landed
42
95
Sig strikes attempted
86
69
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
158s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Llontop
"Goku"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
L1
Malik Lewis
"Hard Knock"
6-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 6.8
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