Back to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Prelims1 Middleweight

Christian Leroy Duncan vs Denis Tiuliulin

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Christian Leroy Duncan
Denis Tiuliulin
87% 13%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
28
Age
Δ 7y
36
14-3
Career record
Δ 35 pp
10-11
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Duncan: 65 sig / 0 TD · Tiuliulin: 30 sig / 0 TD
Christian Leroy Duncan
Denis Tiuliulin
47
Sig strikes landed
30
93
Sig strikes attempted
61
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Christian Leroy Duncan

"CLD"
14-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L2

Denis Tiuliulin

10-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—