Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mick Parkin
Caio Machado
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Parkin: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Machado: 76 sig / 0 TD
Mick Parkin
Caio Machado
47
Sig strikes landed
47
84
Sig strikes attempted
104
58
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
68s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mick Parkin
11-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
Blue corner
Caio Machado
"Bigfoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29