Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jeka Saragih
Lucas Alexander
63%
37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
14-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Saragih: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Alexander: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jeka Saragih
Lucas Alexander
33
Sig strikes landed
32
57
Sig strikes attempted
60
45
Total strikes landed
40
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jeka Saragih
14-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lucas Alexander
"The Lion"
9-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—