Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Jordan Leavitt
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
17-5-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-3
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hooper: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Leavitt: 3 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Jordan Leavitt
44
Sig strikes landed
31
77
Sig strikes attempted
59
62
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W1
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
14-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—