Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Nick Aguirre
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Talbott: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Aguirre: 5 sig / 2 TD
Payton Talbott
Nick Aguirre
42
Sig strikes landed
26
73
Sig strikes attempted
66
62
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Payton Talbott
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
L1
Nick Aguirre
"Slick"
7-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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