Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Morales
Jake Matthews
78%
22%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
20-0
Career record
Δ 25 pp
24-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morales: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Matthews: 57 sig / 0 TD
Michael Morales
Jake Matthews
58
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
106
82
Total strikes landed
50
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
123s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Michael Morales
20-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—