Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Paul Craig
89%
11%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
27-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-10-1
W5
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Allen: 32 sig / 2 TD ·
Craig: 6 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Allen
Paul Craig
51
Sig strikes landed
25
83
Sig strikes attempted
60
61
Total strikes landed
32
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
168s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—