Main
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Nicolas Dalby
74%
26%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 13y
39
20-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
25-6-1
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bonfim: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Dalby: 53 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Nicolas Dalby
34
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
95
50
Total strikes landed
50
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W3
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
25-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—