Main
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Derrick Lewis
75%
25%
Why
79"
Reach
79"
32
Age
Δ 6y
39
23-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
30-13
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Almeida: 38 sig / 6 TD ·
Lewis: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Derrick Lewis
26
Sig strikes landed
9
47
Sig strikes attempted
15
63
Total strikes landed
24
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
670s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
27 fights · 18-9
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—