Main
Heavyweight
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rodrigo Nascimento
Don'Tale Mayes
71%
29%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
81"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
12-3
Career record
Δ 23 pp
12-9
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nascimento: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Mayes: 79 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Nascimento
Don'Tale Mayes
34
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
72
57
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
130s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
12-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
12-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—