Main
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
73%
27%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
36
Age
Δ 1y
38
17-7-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-14
L2
Current streak
L3
11
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rodriguez: 70 sig / 1 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 13 sig / 1 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
77
Sig strikes landed
63
167
Sig strikes attempted
145
101
Total strikes landed
89
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
86s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Marina Rodriguez
17-7-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L3
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—