Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Dan Ige
77%
23%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
18-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
20-11
L1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mitchell: 23 sig / 5 TD ·
Ige: 18 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Dan Ige
44
Sig strikes landed
38
88
Sig strikes attempted
77
73
Total strikes landed
54
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
300s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
18-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dan Ige
"100K"
20-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—