Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mohammed Usman
Jake Collier
73%
27%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
34
Age
Δ 0y
35
13-4
Career record
Δ 22 pp
13-11
W2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 85 sig / 1 TD ·
Collier: 87 sig / 0 TD
Mohammed Usman
Jake Collier
43
Sig strikes landed
36
97
Sig strikes attempted
77
68
Total strikes landed
44
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
7.4
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
245s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
13-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L3
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 5-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—