Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dan Argueta
Miles Johns
48%
52%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
9-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Argueta: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Johns: 43 sig / 2 TD
Dan Argueta
Miles Johns
39
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
64
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
220s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dan Argueta
"The Determined"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W1
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
16-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—