Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Andre Fialho
61%
39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
40
Age
Δ 10y
30
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-9
L3
Current streak
L3
27
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Means: 104 sig / 0 TD ·
Fialho: 51 sig / 1 TD
Tim Means
Andre Fialho
55
Sig strikes landed
44
110
Sig strikes attempted
95
70
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
1.00
Knockdowns
0.30
64s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
27 fights · 14-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
L3
Andre Fialho
16-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—