Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Fiziev
Mateusz Gamrot
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
13-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
27-4
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Fiziev: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamrot: 16 sig / 1 TD
Rafael Fiziev
Mateusz Gamrot
38
Sig strikes landed
46
89
Sig strikes attempted
103
58
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
58s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
13-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W1
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—