Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ramon Taveras
Serhiy Sidey
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Taveras: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Sidey: 11 sig / 0 TD
Ramon Taveras
Serhiy Sidey
33
Sig strikes landed
39
66
Sig strikes attempted
81
46
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ramon Taveras
"The Savage"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Serhiy Sidey
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27