Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Yousri Belgaroui
Marco Tulio
47%
53%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Belgaroui: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Tulio: 48 sig / 2 TD
Yousri Belgaroui
Marco Tulio
36
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yousri Belgaroui
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Marco Tulio
"Matuto"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29