Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Timmy Cuamba
Mateo Vogel
65%
35%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cuamba: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Vogel: 67 sig / 1 TD
Timmy Cuamba
Mateo Vogel
38
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
71
55
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Timmy Cuamba
"Twilight"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Mateo Vogel
"Carrapato"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28