Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thomas Petersen
Chandler Cole
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Petersen: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Cole: 15 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Petersen
Chandler Cole
34
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
60
52
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Chandler Cole
"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29