Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tom Nolan
Bogdan Grad
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
23
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nolan: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Grad: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tom Nolan
Bogdan Grad
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
65
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Bogdan Grad
"The Unleashed"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28