Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Szaflarski
Caio Machado
70%
30%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Szaflarski: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Machado: 121 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Szaflarski
Caio Machado
35
Sig strikes landed
32
66
Sig strikes attempted
61
53
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Szaflarski
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Caio Machado
"Bigfoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29