Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cesar Almeida
Lucas Fernando
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
35
Age
Δ 9y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Fernando: 28 sig / 3 TD
Cesar Almeida
Lucas Fernando
44
Sig strikes landed
50
96
Sig strikes attempted
114
63
Total strikes landed
69
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
127s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Lucas Fernando
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Age
27