Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Reyes Cortez Jr.
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Talbott: 145 sig / 0 TD ·
Cortez Jr.: 76 sig / 1 TD
Payton Talbott
Reyes Cortez Jr.
49
Sig strikes landed
37
96
Sig strikes attempted
88
69
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
149s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Payton Talbott
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
L1
Reyes Cortez Jr.
7-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 5.7
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