Prelims1
Flyweight
Steve Erceg vs Alessandro Costa
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Steve Erceg
Alessandro Costa
54%
46%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
15-4
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Erceg: 74 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 54 sig / 1 TD
Steve Erceg
Alessandro Costa
48
Sig strikes landed
45
126
Sig strikes attempted
113
61
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
Blue corner
W1
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
16-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—