Main
Featherweight
Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Diego Lopes
Pat Sabatini
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
28-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lopes: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Sabatini: 7 sig / 0 TD
Diego Lopes
Pat Sabatini
12
Sig strikes landed
17
24
Sig strikes attempted
28
25
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
276s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Lopes
28-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
Blue corner
W1
Pat Sabatini
23-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—