🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Tom Aspinall
77%
23%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
22-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-3
W6
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pavlovich: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Aspinall: 10 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Tom Aspinall
17
Sig strikes landed
13
35
Sig strikes attempted
32
28
Total strikes landed
15
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
10%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—