🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jiri Prochazka
Alex Pereira
93%
7%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
33-6-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-3
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Prochazka: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Pereira: 38 sig / 0 TD
Jiri Prochazka
Alex Pereira
49
Sig strikes landed
56
117
Sig strikes attempted
116
63
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jiri Prochazka
33-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—