Main
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jessica Andrade
Mackenzie Dern
54%
46%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
32
Age
Δ 2y
31
26-16
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-5
L3
Current streak
W1
25
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Andrade: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Dern: 49 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Andrade
Mackenzie Dern
65
Sig strikes landed
52
135
Sig strikes attempted
125
91
Total strikes landed
77
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.3
2.30
Knockdowns
0.00
104s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
26-16
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
25 fights · 15-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—